Why Peak Retail Now Extends Beyond December

Source: PYMNTS
Date: 2nd January 2026

Returns, tariffs and reverse logistics are turning January into a second peak season for global supply chains.

The traditional end of peak retail activity no longer aligns with the calendar. In recent years, and especially in 2025, the period after Christmas has evolved into a secondary peak driven by returns rather than outbound sales. Goods shipped in November and December increasingly flow back in January, often at peak shipping rates and with limited margin to absorb the added cost. This shift places pressure on logistics operations, fraud management and overall profitability.

Returns remain a substantial operational and financial burden. In the United States alone, returned merchandise represents a significant share of total retail sales, with online purchases accounting for a disproportionately high volume. While return rates have stabilised slightly compared to previous years, the absolute value of returned goods continues to rise, concentrating financial risk on retailers and their supply chain partners rather than being treated as a routine cost of growth.

E-commerce expansion amplifies the challenge. Every returned item generates costs twice, once for outbound fulfilment and again for reverse transport, handling and restocking. At the same time, tariff uncertainty and higher landed costs are reshaping return economics. As duties, carrier surcharges and processing expenses increase, free returns become harder to sustain, particularly for low-margin or bulky products.

The situation is further complicated by return abuse and fraud, which have become a measurable share of total return volumes. In response, many retailers are deploying advanced data and automation tools to detect irregular behaviour, adding another layer of operational complexity. Meanwhile, carrier peak surcharges extending into January have effectively turned the first weeks of the year into a “reverse peak,” where transport costs rise just as recovery value declines.

The evolving returns landscape signals a structural shift rather than a seasonal anomaly. Successful retailers are increasingly redesigning return flows, favouring consolidated drop-off points, in-store returns and controlled processing hubs to reduce cost and improve recovery. Returns are no longer a post-sale afterthought; they are now a core component of supply chain strategy that directly influences cash flow, resilience and customer experience.

Shippers face higher post-holiday volumes moving in reverse, often during extended peak pricing periods. This increases pressure on capacity planning, warehouse throughput and last-mile efficiency, particularly for bulky or high-touch goods.

Importers bear rising landed costs and reverse-logistics costs as tariffs, surcharges and processing expenses erode margins. Inventory planning and return policies increasingly affect cash flow, making reverse logistics optimisation a priority rather than a support function.

Exporters, especially those serving cross-border e-commerce channels, must manage higher return risks, compliance complexity and longer cash cycles. Clear return pathways, localised processing and tighter SKU-level controls are becoming critical to maintaining profitability in international markets.